Economic Reports Points Towards Stability for Housing

Important Economic Data from This Week

The latest economic reports confirm a resilient but cooling national economy. January payrolls rose by 130,000. That exceeded expectations of roughly 55,000 to 70,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%. However, benchmark revisions significantly reduced 2025 total annual job growth from approximately 584,000 to 181,000 (very low in historical terms). That tempers the strength of the headline number and points to why the bond market didn’t respond with an increase in the 10-year treasury yield. Instead, it held fairly steady along with mortgage rates.

Inflation continues easing. CPI increased 0.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, slightly cooler than consensus. As a result, mortgage rates as of writing this post are near 3-year lows. According to Mortgage News Daily, the 30-year mortgage rate is 6.04%.

Washington Labor Market: Slow Re-Hiring

Washington mirrors this balanced pattern. The year-over-year annual average growth rate of initial unemployment insurance claims (IUIC), people filing for unemployment claims for the first time, since 2022 is just 6.86%. That is historically low and far below recessionary spikes. For example, in the early 90’s recession, the annual growth rate was 15%. In the early 2000’s recession, the annual growth rate was 15%. In the great financial crisis of 2008, the annual growth rate was 38%. In the COVID recession, the annual growth rate was 265%. See graph below.

Continued unemployment insurance claims (CUIC), people staying on unemployment, growth stands at 23.32%. That is elevated relative to early 1990s levels but well below the Great Financial Crisis or COVID-era spikes. It’s more on par with the early 2000’s recession period which was driven by tech. This reflects slower re-hiring rather than widespread layoffs.

What This Means for Puget Sound Housing

Housing demand is closely tied to employment stability. Current labor data shows no breakage. Layoffs remain limited. However, hiring momentum is not accelerating. That combination supports a steady, disciplined housing environment. Buyers are likely to remain selective. Sellers must remain realistic.

Spring Outlook

Seasonal activity typically increases as we move into spring. Given current labor and rate stability, conditions point toward measured activity rather than volatility. The macro backdrop supports a functioning market environment.