MARKET UPDATE JANUARY 2025

King County Single-Family

MSP & MOI Jan 2025

Jan 2025 vs Jan 2024

The single-family housing market remained a seller’s market in January 2025, with 1.9 months of supply, up from 1.3 months a year ago but still well below the 4-5 months needed for a balanced market. The median sale price increased 3% year-over-year to $915,000, reflecting continued home value appreciation despite rising inventory.

Active listings surged 56%, and new listings rose 35%, but it's important to note that these increases are from historically low levels, meaning inventory remains relatively tight. Buyer demand stayed strong, with pending sales up 13% and closed sales rising 6.5%. The list price to sold price ratio held steady, and homes took slightly longer to sell, with median days on market up by 3 days.

Mortgage rates fluctuated slightly due to Fed announcements and tariff news on Mexico, Canada, and China, but the overall impact was minimal. The average 30-year fixed rate is currently 7.05%. While future uncertainty around tariffs could affect economic conditions, the market remains resilient, with growing—but still limited—inventory helping to shape a more balanced landscape heading into 2025.

King County Condos/Townhomes

C MSP and MOI Jan 2025

Jan 2025 vs Jan 2024

The condo/townhome market in January started with a much cooler absorption rate, though it remains a seller’s market with 3.5 months of supply, up from 2.1 months in January 2024. The median sale price surged 19% year-over-year to $618,000, largely driven by the strength of the Eastside market.

Inventory saw significant growth, with active listings up 97% and new listings rising 59%, giving buyers more options. Despite the increased supply, demand remained strong, with pending sales up 27% and closed sales rising 16%. The list price to sold price ratio held steady, and homes continued to sell at a similar pace, with no change in median days on market.

Overall, the market is showing signs of rebalancing, with a notable increase in supply yet still strong buyer activity, particularly in higher-priced segments.

MACRO MARKET SUMMARY

In this months' newsletter, we analyzed four podcasts, highlighting market opinions and outlooks from Altos Research (the leader in real-time real estate data), Ivy Zelman (housing analyst), Dr. Orphe Divounguy (senior economist at Zillow) and Logan Mohtashami (housing analyst at HouseingWire). Here's overall summary:
The U.S. housing market in 2025 faces persistent affordability challenges driven by high mortgage rates, rising insurance costs, and supply constraints. While incomes are increasing, affordability remains a major issue, particularly for first-time buyers, as mortgage rates are expected to stay above 6% despite potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. Inventory is gradually rising, with more sellers reducing prices due to weaker demand, but the “lock-in effect” continues to limit existing home sales, as homeowners with low mortgage rates hesitate to sell. New home construction is slow, hindered by high costs, labor shortages, and zoning restrictions, though builders are leveraging lower financing rates to attract buyers. Some markets, like Buffalo, remain strong due to affordability, while Sun Belt cities like Austin and Tampa are experiencing price declines due to oversupply. Additionally, rental markets are diverging, with single-family rents rising as many buyers remain priced out, while multifamily rents soften due to an oversupply of apartments. Insurance costs, especially in disaster-prone areas, are becoming a major affordability barrier. Despite market stagnation, a crash is unlikely, as homeowners remain financially stable with low fixed mortgage rates and growing wages. The market outlook suggests slow, steady growth with affordability constraints persisting until supply increases significantly or mortgage rates decline further.

What This Means for Buyers & Sellers

For Buyers: The slowdown in home price growth and rising inventory present opportunities to negotiate better deals, particularly in overbuilt markets like Austin and Tampa. However, high mortgage rates and insurance costs still make affordability a challenge. Buyers should carefully assess market conditions in their area, look for builder incentives, and explore options like rate buydowns. In tight inventory markets, competition may still be strong, requiring buyers to act decisively.

For Sellers: Those looking to sell in softening markets should be prepared for longer listing times and potential price reductions to attract buyers facing affordability constraints. Proper pricing is crucial to avoid prolonged market exposure. In more affordable, supply-constrained areas, sellers may still see competitive offers. Those locked into low mortgage rates should weigh the benefits of holding onto their property versus reinvesting in a new home.

For Investors: Single-family rentals remain strong, with demand driven by affordability challenges in homeownership. Meanwhile, multifamily properties may face pressure in oversupplied rental markets. Investors should focus on regions with strong population growth and job markets while factoring in rising insurance costs and potential policy changes.

2024 RECAP

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