MARCH 2024 RECAP

KING COUNTY SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL TRENDS

Absorption rate: In King County, the real estate market has been dynamic in March 2024. The absorption rate, which measures how quickly available housing inventory is being purchased by buyers, has steadily increased since the start of the year—a typical trend for the Spring market. As of March 2024, King County had an absorption rate of 0.9 months of supply, indicating that it would take approximately 0.9 months to absorb the existing supply of single-family homes. While this figure varies based on price points, the overall market average is trending back down to levels seen in 2021, characterized by record-low supply levels and fierce competition. In Seattle and on the Eastside, it’s not uncommon to see homes going under contract for 10-20% over the list price, with winning offers often waiving contingencies and providing released earnest money. These conditions heavily favor sellers but pose challenges for buyers.

Sales Activity: the number of new listings remained comparable to March 2023, but pending sales surged by 17% in March 2024, indicating robust buyer demand. The count of closed sales in March was roughly the same as the previous year. Homes typically took an average of 5 days to get under contract, emphasizing the swift pace of transactions. Listings sold for an average of 3.4% over the list price, reflecting the competitive bidding environment.

In summary, the real estate market in King County continued to heat up in March, making it essential for both sellers and buyers to stay informed about these market dynamics.

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Active Listings

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Pending Listings

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Sales Price Ratio

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New Listings

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Closed Sales

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Days on Market

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US HOUSING TRENDS

When it comes to US housing trends, our keen focus rests on the data provided by Altos Research. Let’s delve into March's report for the US market.

Inventory & Demand: Year-over-year inventory is up 22%. According to Altos Research's latest video, this is mainly driven by higher mortgage rates. When rates increase, demand slows down and inventory builds. That said, with more listings on the market, sales activity was higher year-over-year, showing demand resiliency. Both the median sold price and the median price for homes under contract is up 3-4% over last year. Markets where homeowner's insurance premiums are experiencing significant increases, had a higher percentage of the active listings taking price reductions due to unaffordability. On the other hand, inventory remains very tight in West coast metros, leading to strong price appreciation.

Federal Reserve: In the Fed's most recent FOMC meeting, they decided to maintain the target range for the Fed's fund rate due to strong economic indicators and stubborn inflation. Joel Kan, MBA's Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist put it this way, "mortgage rates moved higher last week as several Federal Reserve officials reiterated a patient posture on rate cuts. Inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s target, and the broader economy continues to show resiliency. Unexpectedly strong employment data released last week further added to the upward pressure on rates.” Barring something bad happening in the economy, it looks like the market will have to wait longer to get a rate cut. This most likely means mortgage rates will stay inflated.

2024 Price Forecasts

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Q2 2024 Mortgage Forecasts

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QUOTES FROM INDUSTRY LEADERS

“Our view is that recent data continues to point to a slowdown in economic growth in 2024, but the odds of a recession are much reduced given the resilient job market, which will provide support for consumer spending. This report will bolster the case for the FOMC to hold off on any rate cuts in the near term, which will keep mortgage rates elevated for now.”

Mike Fratantoni Chief Economist at MBA

“With the Federal Reserve expected to announce future rate cuts in the second half of 2024, lower financing costs will draw many prospective buyers into the market.”

– Robert Dietz NAHB Chief Economist

“Mortgage rates moved higher last week as several Federal Reserve officials reiterated a patient posture on rate cuts. Inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s target, and the broader economy continues to show resiliency. Unexpectedly strong employment data released last week further added to the upward pressure on rates,”

- Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist

“Shoppers in these tech-heavy markets are still experiencing bidding wars as commonplace – they all ranked among the 10 major markets with the highest share of homes sold over asking price in February, the most recent data available.”

- Skylar Olsen, Chief Economist at Zillow

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