Mortgage Application Data: Weekly Data Down but Year-over-year data is up

Understanding Mortgage Indexes: What the Latest Data Really Shows

The latest report from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows a 10.9% decline in mortgage applications. However, this headline number reflects multiple components that should be analyzed separately.

The Three Key MBA Indexes

The Market Composite Index measures total mortgage application volume. This index declined 10.9% week over week.

The Refinance Index tracks refinancing activity. It dropped 19% from the previous week as mortgage rates rose to 6.30%.

However, refinance activity remains 69% higher than the same week last year. This shows strong year-over-year recovery despite short-term volatility.

The Purchase Index reflects homebuyer demand. This index increased 1% week over week and is 12% higher than last year.

Why This Distinction Matters

Without separating these indexes, the data can appear misleading. The overall decline is driven primarily by refinancing, not by a drop in buyer demand.

According to Joel Kan, “Purchase applications remained steady despite the higher rates, with conventional purchase applications unchanged and growth in both FHA and VA segments.”

He also noted that demand is supported by higher inventory and slowing home-price growth.

Local Implications for the Puget Sound Market

In King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties, this data reflects a market adjustment rather than a slowdown.

Buyers remain active, supported by improving supply conditions. At the same time, refinancing activity continues to fluctuate with rate changes.

Key Takeaway

The market is not defined by a single number. Each index tells a different story.

Total applications are down, but buyer demand remains steady. Refinance activity is volatile, yet still elevated compared to last year.

Understanding these differences leads to better decisions in today’s housing market.