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Spring Housing Signals: What an Economist Is Watching for 2025
Spring momentum is showing up in weekly housing data. However, the changes look measured. They do not look like a boom.
These insights come from Mike Simonsen, Chief Economist at Compass, who discussed current conditions using Altos Research weekly market data in a recent podcast interview transcript.
Sales Are Up Modestly
Simonsen noted that weekly home sales are running about 5% higher than the same time last year. Mortgage rates have also been steadier, near the low-6% range. Therefore, more buyers appear willing to re-enter the market.
Even so, demand still looks gradual. It is not a sudden surge.
Inventory Is Shifting by Region
Inventory growth is slowing in many areas. Interestingly, Simonsen highlighted that Florida inventory is now below last year. That shift matters because Florida has been a frequent focus of bearish narratives.
At the same time, he called out markets like Connecticut and the Chicago area as persistently tight. Because fewer households are moving, supply stays limited in many Midwest and Northeast markets.
Relistings May Define This Spring
The main metric Simonsen is watching in 2025 is relisted homes. He cited roughly 80,000 single-family homes that were listed, withdrawn last fall, and are now back on the market.
This matters because many of these sellers are owner-occupants. Consequently, a relist often signals a second transaction. That can lift total activity if demand matches the new supply.
Pricing Signals Are Mixed but Improving
Simonsen cited a national measure where median asking price per square foot is about 1.6% lower year-over-year. Yet, the share of listings with price cuts has ticked down. In fact, he noted it is now lower than last year, which is a meaningful change.
What This Means Locally
National data sets the backdrop. Local conditions set the outcome. If you want, I can translate these signals to King, Pierce, and Snohomish County trends using local stats.
Source: Mike Simonsen (Chief Economist, Compass) referencing Altos Research weekly market data, from the podcast transcript provided. https://youtu.be/OWNxce6fV1w?si=XbOoVwDKsf8nd_Uj
